Brexit interview

July 1, 2021·24 min·1 clip

A Northern Ireland voice warns that young people are being told 'Republicans are winning' and handed bombs to throw.

The episode opens with a framing note that Brexit is not a single event but a multi-decade process of disentangling 40 years of law, court decisions, and institutional integration. Tom McTague cites David Cameron's pre-referendum warning that leaving would cost 10 years of effort with no financial savings, noting that warning has largely proved accurate. Boris Johnson succeeded where Theresa May failed by renegotiating a withdrawal deal, partly by rebranding a controversial element rather than substantively changing it, which was enough to pass the House of Commons. The most tangible change so far is that Britain now controls its own immigration system, treating EU citizens the same as those from any other country, ending the free movement that allowed Europeans to live and work across member states. Trade with the EU has slowed because new customs checks have introduced friction and cost for businesses, with lorry congestion near the Eurotunnel cited as a visible symptom. The UK-Australia trade deal is presented as an early example of the independent trade relationships Johnson promised as Brexit's upside. The Northern Ireland border is described as a zero-sum problem: placing a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland would offend the roughly half of Northern Ireland's population who identify as Irish, while placing it in the Irish Sea — which is what happened — infuriates unionists who feel cut off from mainland Britain. Practical consequences include checks on sausages, potted plants, and pets crossing from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. A speaker from Northern Ireland warns that older figures are telling young people that Republicans are winning and their identity is under attack, then directing them to throw petrol bombs and stones. McTague says most analysts consider a full return to Troubles-era violence unlikely, as there is no armed paramilitary organisation importing serious weapons, but the cycle of low-level violence is a genuine concern for politicians. On Brexit's upsides, Johnson's decision to reject the EU's collective COVID vaccine procurement programme and go it alone resulted in a significantly faster UK rollout compared to the EU, which was criticised by the WHO as unacceptably slow. Many Brexit supporters pointed to this as immediate proof that independence produced better outcomes. Johnson's political standing has been boosted by strong Conservative results in English by-elections, including a historic win in Hartlepool, a traditionally Labour seat. Scotland remains a significant threat to Johnson's legacy, as the SNP's continued strength raises the prospect of Scottish independence, which McTague says would define Johnson as one of the worst prime ministers in history. McTague characterises Johnson as a non-traditional Conservative — willing to spend on public services and redistribute money to working-class areas — rather than a Thatcherite or Reaganite. He draws a partial analogy to Trump in terms of cultural resonance but notes Johnson is more libertarian and less of an angry culture warrior. In private interviews, Johnson indicated he sees his project as long-term, and McTague suggests Johnson privately believes he could dominate British politics through the 2020s the way Thatcher dominated the 1980s. Johnson's stated domestic goal is to unify the country after the Brexit divide and restore national self-confidence. McTague's Atlantic profile of Johnson is titled 'The Minister of Chaos.'

As heard by us

A brisk Brexit check-in focused on Northern Ireland, unionist anger, and Boris Johnson's political staying power.

Worldly turns the holiday-week programming swap into a useful Brexit check-in, with Today Explained using Tom McTague of The Atlantic to sort through what Britain's break with the European Union is doing now that the argument has become policy.

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Why you'd press play

For when you want Brexit explained as a live political and economic problem, not a relic.

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