Seven of Taiwan's top ten stock market crashes happened after Trump took office, linked to his TACO trading.
The episode is an interview with Professor Shi Junji focusing on Trump's TACO trading and its effects on global investment markets. The host opens by noting that seven of Taiwan's top ten stock market crashes occurred after Trump took office, linked to his TACO actions. Professor Shi explains that TACO trading involves buying during market dips caused by Trump's announcements, such as tariff releases. He cites the National Security Fund's 53% profit from such strategies, having entered the market about ten times with only one loss. The discussion highlights how investor reactions to Trump's shocks, like tariffs or military exercises, have become numb over time, masking hidden risks that could burst irreversibly. Professor Shi details the uncertainty Trump's policies create for Taiwanese small and medium enterprises, slowing investment and hiring despite AI-driven economic growth of over 8%. He analyzes two key factors for 2026: tariffs, which might be ruled illegal by the US Supreme Court, and AI, whose productivity contribution remains unproven, raising bubble concerns. The episode also covers political instability in the US, with Trump's dropping poll numbers. A major point is the potential shift of 40% of Taiwan's chip exports to US production, which could reduce Taiwan's GDP and echo past issues with investment in China not returning profits. Professor Shi suggests Taiwan needs to negotiate with the US, assess the trade-offs, and develop new economic models beyond reliance on a single branch or market. The tone is analytical, examining both risks and opportunities in a volatile global landscape.
