The Inquiry · BBC World Service

Is nuclear disarmament set to self-destruct?

January 13, 2026·24 min·2 clips

At one point, one in ten light bulbs on the US East Coast was powered by a former Soviet nuclear weapon.

The question is stark. With New START due to expire in February 2026, the host looks at a world where the last US-Russia nuclear arms control treaty may be running out of road. Part one starts with history. An expert witness traces nuclear weapons back to the Second World War, when great powers were willing to chase any tool that might help them win. From there, the episode widens. The worry is bigger than the US-Russia framework: more states may build, expand, or seek nuclear arsenals. The NPT becomes the hinge. One witness describes a treaty that was never tidy or perfect, but still helped prevent the spread once feared in the late 60s. North Korea shows the pressure on that system. The episode cites estimates of 50 weapons, with enough fissile material potentially available for up to 90. The limits look patchy. UN Security Council restraints on North Korea and technology limits affecting India and Pakistan exist, but the guest says they fall well short. China adds another strain, with expanding nuclear facilities and activity around testing facilities putting treaty obligations under more stress. The mood stays measured. In 1995, NPT parties agreed to extend the treaty indefinitely. Now that consensus is described as buried under distrust, broken promises, and weak political will. Still, the episode does not toss the system aside. Four countries have gone nuclear since the treaty entered into force, far fewer than the 30 or 40 once imagined. That lands hard. The witness calls the NPT the best thing available because imperfect restraint still beats no restraint. New START returns at the end, with a former arms control official describing a compliance record that has held up remarkably well, even as its future remains uncertain.

As heard by us

A sober, useful guide to why the next nuclear arms-control deadline matters.

The Inquiry uses the February 2026 expiry of New START as its starting point, then widens the lens to a nuclear order under strain. Charmaine Cozier moves from the wartime origins of atomic weapons to today's uneven pressure on non-proliferation: North Korea's estimated arsenal…

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Why you'd press play

You want the clearest route into why nuclear arms control feels newly fragile, with the New START deadline front and center.

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