Sea Control · CIMSEC Podcasting Team

Sea Control 602: Maritime OSINT with Raae Baker

April 10, 2026·25 min·2 clips

How does maritime OSINT reveal what's really happening in the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict amid widespread disinformation?

1. Sea Control host Jay interviews maritime OSINT analyst Ray Baker on April 3, 2026 — a month into the US-Israel-Iran conflict Operation Epic Fury. 2. Baker transitioned to OSINT from graphic design six years ago, entering the field through a Trace Labs capture-the-flag competition for missing persons, where OSINT evidence is submitted directly to law enforcement. 3. Baker defines OSINT as the collection and analysis of public data — anything accessible to anyone with an internet connection, requiring skill and knowledge rather than access to classified systems. 4. She got into maritime OSINT in 2022 when a blog post about vessel tracking received unexpectedly strong reader response, coinciding with the Russia-Ukraine war and growing public interest in shadow fleets. 5. The key challenge in maritime OSINT is that adversaries now actively spoof AIS transponder data because 'they know we're watching' — position spoofing, name changes, and transponder blackouts are all routine. 6. Baker stresses that analysts can never take AIS data at face value and must do 'second and third tier verification' while understanding the historical and regional context of the area they're studying. 7. She uses the concept of 'uneconomic behavior' as a primary indicator: if a ship deviates from a route that makes commercial sense and goes somewhere that costs it money, that's a first signal worth investigating. 8. A basic vessel investigation starts with MarineTraffic.com (free for live data, paid for historical), checking flag changes, MMSI and IMO number changes, and ownership chains including potential shell companies. 9. Maritime OSINT intersects multiple OSINT disciplines simultaneously: crew and people tracking, corporate reconnaissance, financial analysis, and vessel tracking itself. 10. Baker explains that shadow fleet tankers — older vessels revived to move Russian and Iranian oil around sanctions — frequently spoof their locations, change names, or go dark for months at a time. 11. Ships over 500 gross tons are legally required to broadcast their AIS position, so a vessel going dark is an immediate anomaly signal. 12. Baker notes Iranian and Russian shadow fleet operators have been conducting the same activity since at least 2017 and are already returning to normal operations after vessels are seized. 13. Operation Epic Fury has brought maritime concepts — choke points, shipping insurance, AIS, shadow fleets — to mainstream American public awareness. 14. Baker has noticed a 'massive increase' in analysts posting maritime OSINT tutorials online since the conflict began, expanding a field that was previously very niche. 15. Baker's 2023 book 'Deep Dive: Exploring the Real-World Value of Open Source Intelligence' contains a large chapter on maritime and transportation OSINT. 16. She is currently writing a second book on AI-assisted OSINT, aimed at helping practitioners implement AI tools rather than fear job displacement. 17. Baker's employer found her through her public blogging and speaking, hiring her after she took second place in the same Trace Labs competition where they won first. 18. The episode is conversational and accessible, moving between basic OSINT definitions and advanced practitioner challenges without assuming maritime expertise. 19. Listeners who follow defense and geopolitics broadly but want practical grounding in how ship-tracking intelligence actually works will find the most value here. 20. Those seeking deep technical or classified-level detail will find the discussion stays at the open-source practitioner level throughout.

As heard by us

A clear guide to maritime OSINT and vessel tracking as the public catches up.

The episode gives a clear look at maritime OSINT at a moment when the U.S., Israel, Iran, and nearby states are driving much of the narrative noise.

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Why you'd press play

Need the maritime layer behind a fast-moving conflict?

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