RW acontece – últimas notícias · RW Cast

Análise: avanço de Flávio Bolsonaro nas pesquisas já era esperado

February 12, 2026·14 min·1 clip

Political scientist Fábio Andrade explains why Flávio Bolsonaro's 2% poll rise shouldn't surprise analysts.

The episode begins with news that Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has consolidated as the main opponent to President Lula in the next elections. Political scientist Fábio Andrade argues this advance is natural and should not surprise analysts. He criticizes the lack of analysis in journalism regarding Flávio's performance. Andrade traces the roots to Jair Bolsonaro's 2018 election, describing it as a case study of anti-systemic right consolidation globally since 2016. He emphasizes that political capital built by Jair Bolsonaro was retained within the family, making Flávio's rise predictable. The analyst dismisses Tarcísio's candidacy as unrealistic, calling it a 'dream of a summer night'. He notes Flávio was effectively crowned on December 7, 2025, when Jair indicated him as the candidate. Andrade explains that in a polarized Brazil, votes naturally migrated from Jair to Flávio. The discussion shifts to the role of third-way candidates, focusing on Gilberto Kassab's PSD. Andrade outlines two possibilities for the PSD: running a candidate to test support and sell it expensively in the second round, or building a central party to capture non-Bolsonarist and non-Lulista votes. He considers the latter more remote. The episode then analyzes the government side, debating whether Vice-President Alckmin should remain or be replaced. Andrade evaluates Alckmin's loyalty and ability to maintain 2022 supports versus a new vice who might attract more conservative voters. He concludes that just having a vice-president's name on the ticket doesn't guarantee votes; active campaigning is crucial. Specialists believe little should change as the scenario resembles the last elections. Polls show Lula leading in the first round but facing a tight second round, similar to 2022's narrow margin. Andrade stresses the election will be very tough, with a bellicose climate, and the result favoring whoever makes fewer mistakes. Both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro have high rejection rates, indicating continued polarization.

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