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What's behind the resurgence in farm profits? - Angie Fisher

April 7, 2026·15 min·1 clip

New Zealand sheep and beef farmers are looking at profits nearly double last season's results.

Beef and Lamb New Zealand's mid-season outlook reveals a dramatic profit recovery for sheep and beef farmers, with average farm profits forecast to climb to $287,600 per farm for 2025-26, nearly double the previous season's results. This represents a remarkable turnaround from the 2023-24 season, which recorded the lowest profits since the global financial crisis, with approximately 40% of farms operating in the red. The recovery began in 2024-25 as a revenue rebound, with prices climbing throughout the calendar year and reaching unprecedented levels for beef. The profit surge is primarily driven by constrained global meat supplies, including low beef inventories in the United States and reduced sheep numbers in Australia and domestic European markets. Lamb prices have reached $10.28 per kilogram or around $200 per head, figures that would have seemed impossible just years ago. All regions across New Zealand are benefiting from this recovery, with previously drought-affected areas like Marlborough, Canterbury, and the east coast showing particular improvement. However, significant risks threaten this positive outlook, particularly Middle East conflicts that could disrupt supply chains and drive up costs. Fuel price increases are already flowing through to farm input costs, affecting everything from fertilizer transport to aerial spreading operations. Farm input prices increased by 30% from 2021 to 2024, creating substantial inflationary pressure that squeezed profit margins during the difficult years. Interest rates remain a critical factor, with economists predicting rates will stay steady through mid-2026 before potentially rising, though geopolitical conflicts could force earlier action by the Reserve Bank. Farmers are using improved cash flow to catch up on deferred maintenance and increase fertilizer applications after several tough seasons of minimal investment. The forecast shows lamb processing expected to rise 2.6% to 17.1 million head due to better-than-expected lambing results, while adult sheep processing is expected to decline as farmers had already culled heavily in the previous season when mutton prices improved. Despite current uncertainties, the fundamental market conditions remain strong, with robust global demand for red meat and no indication that competitor supply levels will recover soon. The sector's success is contributing significantly to the broader economy, with farmers spending approximately $16 million per day on goods and services, much of it locally, supporting regional communities during uncertain economic times.

As heard by us

Strong farm profits, but costs and catch-up spending are still working their way back in.

Angie Fisher offers a steady read on the Beef and Lamb New Zealand mid-season outlook, with sheep and beef farmers still enjoying strong returns.

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Why you'd press play

You want the farm numbers without the jargon.

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