Rates & Barrels: A show about Baseball · The Athletic

Projections Are a Liar Sometimes!

March 19, 2026·1 hr 10 min·4 clips

Why do baseball projection systems consistently undervalue the game's biggest superstars?

The hosts introduce a novel draft format called a 'plus-minus draft' where the goal is to accumulate wins above projected WAR rather than traditional fantasy points. Derek takes Ronald Acuna Jr. first overall despite injury concerns, believing his 2023 nine-WAR season shows upside beyond the 5.3 projection. Eno employs a systematic approach, comparing Steamer to other projection systems and targeting Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr., arguing that projection systems compress elite talent too much toward league average. Jed focuses on young defensive players like Mikel Garcia and Wyatt Langford, believing their defensive floors provide safety while offensive growth offers upside. The episode includes injury updates on several key players: Seiya Suzuki's PCL strain may affect his stolen base attempts but shouldn't require surgery, Jose Ramirez's shoulder inflammation appears minor, and Garrett Cole's spring debut shows encouraging velocity in his Tommy John recovery. Jed provides personal insight into PCL injuries from his playing experience, explaining the rehabilitation process and long-term implications. The draft discussion reveals different philosophies about projection accuracy, with debate over whether systems like Steamer adequately account for elite player ceilings and defensive value. Eno's strategy of targeting the highest-projected players contrasts with Jed's focus on young defenders with breakout potential. The conversation touches on advanced defensive metrics and how different projection systems handle defensive value differently. The hosts also discuss the challenges of projecting playing time, particularly for injury-prone stars like Acuna and Mike Trout. The episode demonstrates how projection-based analysis can reveal market inefficiencies and different approaches to player evaluation beyond traditional fantasy formats.

Listen to the show on

Apple Podcasts Spotify

Play clips from this episode More from Rates & Barrels: A show about Baseball