Rates & Barrels: A show about Baseball · The Athletic

New Pitch Watch & Chasing Shapes

February 12, 2026·1 hr·5 clips

The obsession with pitch 'shapes' is creating a dangerous blind spot in baseball development.

The Rates & Barrels crew kicks off with spring training's typical storylines, debunking claims about players gaining 20 pounds of muscle (scientifically capped at 2-2.5 pounds per month) and discussing the Rangers' top prospect Sebastian Walcott missing most of 2025 due to UCL surgery. Chris Bassett's signing with Baltimore for $18.5 million raises questions about their potential six-man rotation, especially with Kyle Bradish returning from Tommy John surgery. The Orioles now have significant depth but face decisions about Dean Kremer's role. Max Muncy's extension through 2027 with the Dodgers reflects his consistent value as a 2.5-win player despite aging concerns. MLB owners voted to enforce base coach box rules to limit pitch tipping, though the hosts question how long this enforcement will last given past failures. The main technical discussion centers on Garrett Crochet's new changeup - a seam-shifting split-change that addresses his previous pitch's lack of movement. Trevor May explains the grip mechanics in detail, noting how Crochet learned from Aroldis Chapman and Colton Wong. The pitch now generates more depth and better command compared to his previous circle change. Sonny Gray's reported 2,800 RPM spin rate on breaking balls (up from 2,500-2,600) raises questions about new Hawkeye systems in spring training parks. May discusses spin rate's relationship to grip strength and pitch effectiveness, noting that extremely high spin rates only matter for certain pitch types. The episode's most insightful segment addresses modern pitch design culture, where young pitchers obsess over 'shapes' and peak movement numbers without considering how pitches work together. May warns that chasing maximum movement can hurt command and tunneling, citing examples of big leaguers whose sweepers move 25 inches but get hit because they're too distinct from other pitches. He emphasizes that recruitment and draft processes now rely heavily on CSV files and peak performance videos, creating pressure for young pitchers to maximize individual pitch metrics rather than developing complete arsenals. The discussion touches on how bigger shapes are harder to command, referencing Bryce Miller's early struggles with his sweeper despite impressive movement numbers.

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