The Glass Half-Empty: Debunking "New Optimism", with Rodrigo Aguilera - Part I

·1 hr 3 min·5 clips

Economist Rodrigo Aguilera challenges the myth of progress in his book The Glass Half Empty.

This episode of Physical Attraction features guest Rodrigo Aguilera, a Mexico-born economist based in London, discussing his book "The Glass Half-Empty: Debunking the Myth of Progress in the 21st Century." Hosts Matt and Will engage Aguilera to critique what they term the "new optimism" theory of global progress. The conversation centers on the argument that complacency over statistical improvements hinders achieving more substantive human advancement. Aguilera directly challenges the narratives of prominent "new optimists" like Steven Pinker, Hans Rosling, and Matt Ridley. He disputes the claim that violence has significantly declined by questioning how violence is defined and measured in such analyses. The discussion covers global inequality, arguing that aggregate economic gains often mask persistent and severe regional disparities. Aguilera examines specific metrics like child mortality and poverty rates, suggesting their reported improvements can be misleading. He contends that an over-reliance on historical comparisons to worse conditions can lower contemporary ambitions for justice and equity. A key insight is that framing progress as "things are better than they were" can become a political tool to justify the status quo and stifle demands for greater change. Aguilera proposes that true progress requires a foundation of accurate, often sobering, assessment rather than selective optimism. He emphasizes that human capacity for compassion and ingenuity should be directed by a clear-eyed view of remaining problems, not diminished by celebratory graphs. The episode suggests that acknowledging a "glass half-empty" is a necessary step for motivating action to fill it completely, rather than a sign of pessimism. The tone is analytical and conversational, structured as an interview-driven critique of popular intellectual trends. The style is educational, dissecting economic and social data through a skeptical lens. Listeners interested in critiques of mainstream optimism about global development and fans of detailed socioeconomic debate would appreciate this episode. Those seeking uplifting stories of human advancement or who strongly align with the works of Steven Pinker might find the perspective presented here challenging or disagreeable.

Listen to the show on

Apple Podcasts Spotify

Play clips from this episode More from Physical Attraction