OSW expert Krzysztof Strachota explains why Iraq is on the brink of a home-war due to pro-Iranian militias.
The episode begins with host Tomasz Lesie introducing the topic of Iraq's tense situation, framing it as being on the brink of civil war. Guest expert Krzysztof Strachota from OSW provides the analysis. He first explains the origins of the pro-Iranian Shiite militias, known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, which were created in 2014 in response to the Islamic State offensive. These militias, numbering around 100,000, are formally part of Iraq's security apparatus but have limited state control and are not fully integrated. The discussion then shifts to Iraq's broader political landscape, which is fragmented with autonomous Kurdish forces, Sunni opposition, and remaining ISIS insurgents. The current instability is intensified by the wider Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict, with Iraq serving as a proxy theater. Strachota details how Shiite militias are attacking various targets: U.S. bases, Kurdish forces (both Iranian and Iraqi), energy facilities in Kurdistan, and even Iraqi state institutions like the Green Zone, Baghdad airport, and intelligence headquarters. These attacks aim to generate chaos, undermine the Baghdad government, and push Iraq closer to Iran. The Iraqi government's response is limited; it recognizes the militias' right to self-defense but also cooperates with the U.S. militarily. Direct confrontation is avoided due to fear of sparking a civil war. The situation in Iraqi Kurdistan adds another layer of complexity, with the potential for Kurdish groups to become involved in conflict with Iran. Regional actors like Turkey and Gulf states are concerned about the spreading instability. Strachota concludes that while Iraq is not currently in a civil war, it has high internal tensions that could escalate, and a lasting solution depends on broader regional strategic changes.
