NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast · NerdWallet Personal Finance

Housing in 2026: Home Prices and Rates Are in Flux. Time to Make Your Move?

January 8, 2026·36 min·3 clips

Elizabeth Renter identifies the April 2025 tariff announcements as the economic event that reshaped inflation and trade policies.

NerdWallet hosts Sean Piles and Anna Hilhoski kick off 2026 with economist Elizabeth Renter for a year-in-review and outlook conversation. Renter identifies the Liberation Day tariff cluster from April 2025 as the standout economic event: a 10% universal tariff announcement followed by reciprocal tariffs, policy reversals, and ongoing legal challenges that have reorganized global trade relationships in ways that will take years to fully measure. The Supreme Court has a case on the tariffs enacted under emergency economic powers, with a ruling potentially affecting $168 billion in business claims. The Fed held rates steady for the first half of 2025 watching tariff and immigration policy develop, then resumed cuts in September, reading the labor market risk as higher than inflation risk. Those cuts have not yet fully passed through into the economy due to long monetary policy lags. The labor market has cooled from the Great Reshuffling era, with hiring and quit rates both low as workers stay in current jobs rather than seek upgrades. Renter distinguishes between supply-side cooling driven by immigration enforcement reducing labor availability, and demand-side cooling from businesses pulling back. Core inflation stayed stickier than expected in 2025, driven by housing and services rather than tariff goods. Housing costs are likely to remain elevated into 2026, with shelter inflation sticky and health care costs adding to services pressure. Household debt delinquencies are rising across auto and credit card loans, suggesting households are becoming more fragile. Renter highlights AI investment as a potential bubble risk, particularly because a market downturn would hit high-asset households who have driven consumer spending. Fed independence is flagged as an emerging concern as Trump considers a new Fed chair. The housing segment focuses on a market where high rates and low inventory continue to suppress transaction volume, and potential buyers face affordability challenges made worse by the general economic uncertainty.

Listen to the show on

Apple Podcasts Spotify

Play clips from this episode More from NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast