Golf Betting System Podcast · Golf Betting System

John Deere Classic + BMW International Open 2025 - Betting Preview

·1 hr 4 min·4 clips

Steve says, "I've gone for six" and is chasing a first win after repeated near-misses.

1. Golf Betting System Podcast episode 361 previews the 2025 John Deere Classic and BMW International Open with Steve Bamford, Barry O'Hanrahan, and Paul Williams. 2. Steve Bamford leads the betting discussion, Barry O'Hanrahan adds course-fit reactions, and Paul Williams provides the detailed stats work that shapes the selections. 3. The episode asks which players can turn strong approach play and putting into wins at TPC Deere Run and Golf Club München Eichenried. 4. Steve describes TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, as a 7,289-yard par 71 with bentgrass greens and a history of very low winning scores. 5. He cites winning totals of 28-under, 27-under, 21-under, 19-under, and 21-under to argue that the John Deere Classic should be a sub-20-under event again. 6. Steve says the key week-on-week change from the Rocket Mortgage Classic is that the John Deere Classic puts more weight on around-the-green play and putting. 7. He also argues that negative strokes gained putting will not be enough, even for players with strong tee-to-green numbers. 8. Steve backs Michael Thorbjornsen, Chris Kirk, Jake Knapp, Kevin Yu, Lucas Glover, and Nico Echavarria at prices mostly between 28-1 and 50-1. 9. He links Thorbjornsen to Davis Thompson's path, Kirk to his T2 at last week's playoff, Knapp to his 21-under final 54 holes, and Kevin Yu to improved recent putting. 10. Paul adds Denny McCarthy at 28-1, saying his 8th at the PGA Championship and 12th at the Travelers came in stronger fields than this one. 11. Paul also backs Tristan Lawrence at 80-1 after Lawrence finished 8th last week and posted strong long-game numbers, including 12th off the tee and 7th on approach. 12. Paul's other deeper selection is Sammy Valimaki at 90-1, supported by a 12th place at the John Deere last year and a 19th-place finish last week. 13. Steve and Paul both discuss the significance of current form, noting that recent John Deere winners have ranked highly in form metrics before arriving. 14. Steve highlights a betting-market oddity at Betfred, where some players were showing the same price in five-place and eight-place each-way markets. 15. Paul frames JT Poston as a strong model fit because the predictor variables line up with his previous win at this event. 16. The BMW International Open preview shifts to Golf Club München Eichenried in Munich, a 7,354-yard par 72 parkland course with four mid-range par 5s and two short par 4s. 17. Paul says the course does not neatly suit one player type, but it does favour attacking golf and offers clear scoring chances. 18. Paul notes that Patrick Reed is 12-1 after winning on LIV Dallas with negative strokes gained putting, while Sergio Garcia sits at 28-1 and Hao Tong Li is a former winner here. 19. The tone is analytical and betting-led, with rapid-fire banter, price checks, and repeated references to stats models and course history. 20. Golf bettors who want course-fit previews and each-way angles will get the most from this episode, while listeners wanting long-form storytelling may skip it.

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