What Happens to REAL ESTATE During a Recession?

April 13, 2025·52 min·5 clips

Eddie explains why a recession doesn't mean falling home prices, with data from past downturns.

This episode of Get Real with Eddie features host Eddie Rudiger, a managing broker, and co-host Nancy analyzing real estate trends during economic recessions. They examine historical data to challenge common assumptions about housing prices and mortgage rates. Eddie cites the last six recessions, noting home prices increased in four: 1980 (6.1%), 1981 (3.5%), 2001 (6.6%), and 2020 (6%). Prices fell only 1.5% in 1991 and 19.7% during the 2008 crisis, which he attributes to a banking recession. He states mortgage rates typically decline during recessions, falling 4.5% in 1980 and 5% in 1981 when rates were near 12-18%. Current national data shows active listings up 27.5% to 847,000, though this remains below the historical average of 1 million. The median home price increased 3.8% year-over-year, which Eddie calls a historic normal average. A surprising claim is that a recession does not guarantee falling real estate prices, based on the four of six recessions where prices rose. Eddie argues the 2008 price collapse resulted from ill-willed banking practices, not the real estate market itself. He notes current mortgage rates, while volatile, are still below the historical average of 7.2%. The hosts emphasize buyers now have more negotiation power, with market time at 66 days nationally but only 30-40 days in their local Joliet market. They detail specific negotiable items beyond price, including closing cost credits, home warranties ($500-$1,500), and appliances like ovens or refrigerators. A memorable anecdote describes a seller who lost $35,000-$40,000 by refusing to adjust a closing date. Eddie presents Joliet data showing the median sales price up 8.3% to $260,000, with months of supply at a low 1.2. Showings per listing, however, are down 27.1%, indicating softened demand. The tone is conversational and educational, blending macroeconomic data with practical, agent-level advice. The style is heavily data-driven, with specific percentages and references to sources like NAR and Realtor.com. This episode would appeal to prospective home buyers or sellers seeking historical context to navigate current market uncertainty. Listeners interested in hyper-local, transaction-level negotiation tactics might find the Joliet analysis particularly useful. Those seeking high-level economic theory or national policy discussion might skip the detailed local data segments.

As heard by us

A plainspoken look at recession talk and local real-estate geography.

This piece keeps recession talk close to the ground, with Eddie and Nancy treating it less like a panic signal and more like a market correction that fits the moment.

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Why you'd press play

You want recession chatter translated into local market reality without the drama or spin.

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