Анастасія Лузгіна. Знятыя санкцыі і ўмацаванне рубля — чым здзівіць эканоміка Беларусі?

·42 min·4 clips

The U.S. just lifted sanctions from Belarusian banks and the Ministry of Finance—what does this mean for credit and international payments?

The episode begins with host Marisa Vajtovich introducing economist Anastasia Luzhina to discuss the Belarusian economy following the partial withdrawal of U.S. sanctions. Luzhina details the U.S. lifting sanctions from Belinvestbank, the Development Bank, the Ministry of Finance, and Belarus Kali, noting it eases dollar transactions but is limited as European sanctions persist. She explains that European sanctions, intensified in 2025, disconnect banks from SWIFT and block card payments, creating risks for Belarusians traveling in the EU. The conversation shifts to potassium exports, where U.S. sanction removal reduces risks for international buyers but logistical challenges via Russian ports remain. Luzhina then analyzes internal economic indicators, revealing GDP shrank 1.2% in early 2026, with industry down 7% and high inventory levels indicating sales difficulties. She discusses salary stagnation, noting nominal wages slightly decreased in February 2026. The host asks about public transport fare increases of 15%, which Luzhina links to rising costs and inefficient state subsidies compared to targeted benefits in European countries. She also addresses a 19.7% drop in online shops, attributing it to reduced demand and regulatory pressures on small businesses. Finally, Luzhina examines the Belarusian ruble's recent strengthening, tying it directly to the Russian ruble's movements due to tax periods and oil prices, emphasizing Belarus's economic dependency on Russia. She concludes that without easing EU sanctions or Russian economic improvement, Belarus's economy will likely stagnate with minimal growth.

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