Echa Rynku 🎧 – Podcast SII · Stowarzyszenie Inwestorów Indywidualnych

Echa Rynku #257: Największa obawa? Wieloletni trend boczny na niskiej zmienności

·40 min·4 clips

Michał Masłowski opens with the Dow Jones's 11% surge, the highest since 1934, then notes it's already down 1.5% as they record.

The episode opens with hosts Michał Masłowski and Adrian Mackiewicz commenting on recent market swings, including an 11% Dow Jones surge—the highest since 1934—followed by a drop, recorded in real-time on a Wednesday. They question how to invest amid such volatility and whether the market has reached a bottom. Adrian presents two negative scenarios: a double-bottom formation or further declines, emphasizing that the coronavirus crisis may not resolve quickly. The hosts explore broader societal changes, such as shifts in greetings and remote work adoption, prompted by the pandemic. Adrian's primary concern is a multi-year sideways trend on the Polish WIG 20 index with low volatility, reminiscent of 2001-2003, where daily changes were minimal and turnover low. He references a Twitter discussion between Paweł Borys and Piotr Kuczyński, noting that after a similar 1933 surge, the US market took 10 years to recover, though they hope modern globalization speeds recovery. The conversation turns to massive government interventions, including the Fed's unlimited quantitative easing and a $2 trillion US aid bill, raising fears about the severity of underlying economic forecasts. They note ongoing market fears despite these measures, with European indices like DAX turning negative after morning gains. The hosts critique the difficulty of predicting company earnings during the crisis, as quarantine affects sectors differently. They highlight Square Games, which reported record monthly revenues of 29 million złoty in February, benefiting from quarantine-driven gaming demand and a strong dollar as an exporter. The company's success is attributed to digital distribution and lack of physical stores. Another example is Voxel, a medical imaging firm that published 2019 results with a slight profit dip but revenue growth; the hosts discuss its potential role in coronavirus diagnostics via CT scans. The episode concludes with a reminder of previous discussions on resilient industries like gaming and healthcare, and a brief mention of technical issues during remote recording.

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