Der immocation Podcast | Lerne Immobilien · immocation

607 🎙️ | 2026er Immobilien-Markt. Der große Überblick (Interview mit Jürgen Schick)

·1 hr 21 min·6 clips

Jürgen Schick, president of IVD and a major broker, explains where Germany's real estate market is heading in 2026.

1. Der immocation Podcast presents a 2026 German real estate market update with Jürgen Schick, IVD president and managing director of Schick Immobilien, interviewed by co-host Marco. 2. Schick is introduced as a regular podcast guest, active multi-family house investor and broker, and publisher of the annual Zinshausmarktbericht—a 234-page transaction data report on 50 German cities. 3. The episode's central argument is that the post-2022 price correction in German multi-family houses is effectively over in most markets, with 2024 data showing a clear recovery in both transaction volume and prices. 4. The Zinshausmarktbericht is distinguished from portal offer-price reports by using Gutachterausschuss (municipal notary board) data—actual completed purchase prices submitted by notaries—making it a transactions-based rather than aspirational-price source. 5. Schick explains the German data transparency gap relative to Anglo-Saxon markets: in the USA, historic purchase prices are publicly traceable at the individual property level, enabling pre-purchase due diligence that is unavailable in Germany. 6. In 2024, Germany recorded 11,102 multi-family house purchase cases among the 50 largest cities, up 24% from 2023's record low, representing 17.6 billion euros in transaction volume. 7. Historical context: 13,000 cases per year in 2019–2020, a super-cycle peak of 14,000 cases in 2021, a sharp drop in H2 2022 following the ECB rate pivot, and a trough in 2023 as buyers waited to see how far prices would fall. 8. Schick notes that early entrants to the 2023 market—described as 'those who were there early are now being rewarded'—bought during maximum uncertainty with maximum negotiating leverage. 9. The VDP (Verband Deutscher Pfandbriefbanken) multi-family house price index, set to 100 in Q4 2023, reached 107 in Q3 2025—a 7% price recovery from the cycle floor, based on mortgage-financed transaction data. 10. Berlin, representing 24% of the total German housing investment market among the 50 cities, has experienced eight consecutive quarters of sideways price movement; Munich and Hamburg represent 9% and 6% respectively, with the top three A cities accounting for 39% of total market volume. 11. Munich is a special case: 147 purchase cases in 2023 grew to 265 in 2024 (+80%), but price per square meter declined from 6,150€ to 5,800€, with rental yield factors dropping from 36× (2023) to 33× (2024) and trending toward 30× in 2025. 12. The eastern German cities lead the transaction recovery table in the 2024 Zinshausmarktbericht: Schwerin +256%, Zwickau +193%, and Rostock +166% in volume change, followed by Erfurt, Gera, and Dresden. 13. Schick explains the east German outperformance as a function of deeper 2023 corrections creating more attractive re-entry factors, with local investors and Schick's own firm actively investing in Schwerin and Rostock via a buy-and-subdivide strategy. 14. The Ruhr region is explicitly flagged as lagging the national recovery with below-average purchase case counts, contrasting with the east German revival. 15. Schick's twice-yearly investor sentiment survey of approximately 3,000 active private and commercial investors shows 80% now expect stable or rising prices—versus a majority expecting declines in the 2023 survey. 16. Schick argues the sentiment barometer consistently leads the hard transaction data: the positive mood visible in his surveys was subsequently confirmed by the 2024 transaction recovery numbers. 17. On acquisition strategy, Schick and Marco agree that the 2023 tactic of submitting offers at minus 20–25% from asking price is no longer viable in recovering demand markets: sellers now have second and third interested buyers behind initial bidders. 18. Schick recommends the Zinshausmarktbericht for benchmarking local purchase prices, vacancy rates (Düsseldorf 1%, Munich 0.2%, Berlin 0.3%), and rental trends before submitting offers—replacing 'gut feel' with reference data from actual completed transactions. 19. German-speaking multi-family house investors—whether beginners sizing their first purchase or experienced investors benchmarking portfolio acquisitions—will find the specific city-level data and market timing analysis directly applicable. 20. Investors in markets outside Germany or those focused on condominiums rather than multi-family rental properties will find the episode too narrowly focused on German institutional-grade housing investment.

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